Virginia State's A- offense meets Johnson C. Smith's B+ defense in a true coin flip

The biggest mismatch here cuts both ways. Virginia State fields the CIAA's most explosive attack, an A- offense ranked 30th in Division II, while Johnson C. Smith counters with a B+ defense ranked 48th, one of the stingier units in the division. Flip the matchup around and the gap reverses: Virginia State's defense grades out at only C+ and ranks 83rd, while Johnson C. Smith's own offense sits at C+ and 87th. Strength lines up against strength on both sides of the ball, which is why Versus projects this one at 28-27 in favor of Johnson C. Smith, a near pick'em despite Virginia State sitting 25 spots higher in the Division II rankings at No. 66 to No. 91.

Virginia State comes in 7-1 and has made a habit of blowouts, winning 5 of 8 games this season by 21 points or more. Johnson C. Smith is 6-2 and has leaned on its defense to get there, holding opponents at least 25% below their scoring average in 6 of its 8 games. Both teams carry weak strength of schedule marks, ranked 161st and 159th respectively, so neither resume has been tested much.

This is a CIAA game and counts fully in the conference standings for both teams.