D3 · American Southwest ConferenceConference game
McMurry tries to snap East Texas Baptist's seven-game series streak
McMurry#8752%
East Texas Baptist#13248%Wk 9 (Oct 25), 2026-27: McMurry 52%, East Texas Baptist 48% at East Texas Baptist.
McMurry's win probability against East Texas Baptist is trending up — from 44% to 52% over the last 6 weeks.
McMurry's win probability against East Texas Baptist is trending up — from 50% to 58% over the last 6 weeks.
McMurry's win probability against East Texas Baptist is trending up — from 56% to 64% over the last 6 weeks.
East Texas Baptist has owned this series lately, winning seven straight and eight of the last ten meetings with McMurry, which hasn't beaten the Tigers since October 2016 in a set East Texas Baptist leads 10-3 overall. History says Tigers.
Versus sees it differently this week. McMurry is a narrow favorite, projected to win 35-34 with a 52 percent chance against East Texas Baptist's 48, a margin of just one point.
McMurry carries a B+ offense, B+ defense and a strength of schedule rank of 10 in Division III, with all four of its losses coming against teams with winning records. The War Hawks have also dropped back-to-back games for the first time since September 2025, so the margin shown here would snap that skid. East Texas Baptist is the more lopsided profile, an A offense ranked 30th in D3 paired with a C+ defense at 128th, and the Tigers have been noticeably stronger at home than on the road this season, a pattern that matters with this one played at East Texas Baptist.
The game counts in the American Southwest Conference standings for both programs.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
