Warner U.'s power rank edge has it favored at Ave Maria

The clearest gap between these two Sun Conference teams is in the power rankings, where Warner U. sits 34th in NAIA against Ave Maria's 53rd, a 19-spot difference that lines up with Versus projecting a 30-21 win for the Royals and a 70 percent chance to take it. Warner U. also carries a strength of schedule rank of 3, remarkable for a 3-4 team, while Ave Maria's slate rates 24th, suggesting Warner's record understates how it has played.

Warner U.'s B grades across offense and defense outpace Ave Maria's C offense and B- defense, and the Royals have improved their power rating in each of the last four weeks. The one complication is where this game is played. Warner U. has scored noticeably better at home than on the road this season, and this trip to Ave Maria asks the Royals to prove that form travels.

Ave Maria enters with its own case for confidence. All three of its losses have come against teams with winning records, and the Gyrenes have won back-to-back games for the first time since October 2023. Their B overall grade and 36th ranking in the division keep them within range of an upset, even if Versus still gives Warner U. the clear edge in this Sun Conference matchup that counts in the standings for both sides.