Grinnell eyes first win over Cornell IA since 2009

Cornell IA has owned this series, leading 13-1 in 14 meetings since 2008 and winning the last 13 in a row, with Grinnell's only victory in the set dating back to September 2009. That history sits oddly next to this week's projection, which has Grinnell favored to finally snap the streak, 24-20, with a 59 percent win probability at home.

The numbers explain why Versus likes a change. Grinnell's defense has not allowed more than 13 points in four straight games, and the Pioneers have won three of their seven games by 21 points or more this season, both signs of a team that has found something lately even while sitting at a D overall grade and 202nd in D3 power rank. Cornell IA, by contrast, has been outscored on average over its last five games, going 2-3 in that stretch, and all four of its losses this season have come against teams with winning records.

Cornell IA tends to play better at home than on the road, and Grinnell shows the same home boost in scoring. The game counts in the Midwest Conference standings, and with both teams graded in the D range, neither margin nor history points to a sure thing.