Montana-Western favored over Simpson CA despite the worse record

The records suggest Simpson CA is the team playing better football, sitting at 3-4 while Montana-Western has slipped to 2-5. Versus's ratings tell a different story, placing the two almost dead even in the NAIA, No. 52 Montana-Western and No. 55 Simpson CA, with the Bulldogs actually favored at home.

The gap shows up in the details rather than the overall grade. Both teams carry a B- in power and a C+ overall, but Montana-Western's strength of schedule rank of 9 dwarfs Simpson CA's 44, and its defense grades out at B- compared to a C for the Red Hawks. Simpson CA counters with the better offense on paper, graded B+ against Montana-Western's B.

Neither team arrives trending cleanly. Montana-Western has fallen 39 spots in the NAIA rankings this season and has been outscored by an average of 16 points over its last five games, though it has also scored far more on the road than at home, an odd wrinkle for a team hosting this one. Simpson CA has swung wildly, from a 42-point win to a 42-point loss, but climbed to a season-best ranking just last week.

Versus projects Montana-Western to win 36-32, giving the Bulldogs a 58 percent chance at home. The result counts in the Frontier standings for both sides.