Millikin favored to outlast Carthage in a CCIW points race

Versus projects a 29-24 final here, Millikin covering a 5-point margin with a 62 percent win probability over Carthage. That is a tighter call than the overall grades suggest, since Millikin carries a B overall mark against Carthage's C, and it reflects recent form on both sides rather than a one-sided profile.

Millikin arrives at 3-4 with a stronger offensive grade of B and a defensive grade of C, plus the 33rd ranked strength of schedule in Division III, well ahead of Carthage's 85th. But the Big Blue have been outscored on average over their last five games, going 2-3 in that stretch, so the projection is betting on their upside more than their recent results.

Carthage, at 2-4, has its own warning signs. The Red Men have been outscored on average across their last five outings and are coming off a loss that snapped a perfect start at home this season. They have scored more effectively at home than on the road this year, which keeps them within range on their own field.

This one counts in the CCIW standings, and with Millikin ranked 86th and Carthage 143rd in Division III, the margin projected here lines up with two teams fighting to find consistency rather than separation.