D3 · American Southwest ConferenceConference game
Mary Hardin-Baylor projected to pull away from McMurry by 18
Mary Hardin-BaylorAway37
McMurryHome19Mary Hardin-Baylor#1785%McMurry#8115%Wk 8 (Oct 18), 2026-27: Mary Hardin-Baylor 85%, McMurry 15% at McMurry.
Mary Hardin-Baylor's win probability against McMurry has swung between 81% and 90% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 85% now.
Mary Hardin-Baylor's win probability against McMurry has swung between 85% and 92% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 88% now.
Mary Hardin-Baylor's win probability against McMurry has swung between 88% and 94% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 91% now.
Versus projects Mary Hardin-Baylor to beat McMurry 37-19, an 18-point margin that puts the Crusaders' win probability at 85 percent in this American Southwest Conference game, which counts in the league standings for both clubs.
The gap in the data is stark. Mary Hardin-Baylor carries an A grade across the board, overall, power, offense and defense, with ranks of 21st in power, 23rd in offense and 20th in defense among Division III teams. The Crusaders have also climbed 18 spots in the Versus Division III rankings this season, rising from 35th to 17th, a trajectory that matches the size of margin the model expects here.
McMurry is graded B overall with a B+ offense and B defense, and its own numbers tell a tougher story this season. All three of the War Hawks' losses have come against teams with winning records, and Mary Hardin-Baylor fits that profile at 5-1. McMurry does carry a stronger strength of schedule rank, 17th against Mary Hardin-Baylor's 46th, but Versus still sees the Crusaders' broader grades as the deciding factor in this American Southwest matchup.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
