Arkansas-Pine Bluff projected to beat Alabama State by 11 points

Versus projects Arkansas-Pine Bluff to win at home 33-22 over Alabama State, giving the Golden Lions a 73 percent chance against the Hornets' 27. An 11-point margin lines up with a team Versus already rates well clear of its opponent, and the model's confidence here is built on a wide gap in how the two sides are graded.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff carries a B overall grade and ranks 49th in FCS, powered by a B+ offense that sits 32nd in the division even though its defense grades out only C+ at 65th. The Golden Lions have improved their power rating in each of the last four weeks, and their most lopsided win of the season, a 41-10 result over Southern U. on October 3, backs up the offensive numbers.

Alabama State is a tougher out than its D+ overall grade and 103rd divisional rank suggest. The Hornets' own win over Southern U. counted as their biggest upset of the year against a team 42 spots above them, and no one has beaten them by more than 17 points all season. A B- defense is the strength of that roster, even if a 122nd-ranked strength of schedule raises questions about how it holds up here.

The series has favored Alabama State historically, with the Hornets up 9-2 overall and winners of 8 of the last 10 meetings, but this one counts in the Southwestern Athletic Conference standings regardless of that history, and Versus's numbers point toward Arkansas-Pine Bluff snapping that trend at home.