FCS · Southland ConferenceConference game
Texas-Rio Grande Valley projected to edge Incarnate Word by one point
Texas-Rio Grande ValleyAway27
Incarnate WordHome26Texas-Rio Grande Valley#3752%Incarnate Word#4548%Wk 7 (Oct 11), 2026-27: Texas-Rio Grande Valley 52%, Incarnate Word 48% at Incarnate Word.
Texas-Rio Grande Valley's win probability against Incarnate Word has swung between 50% and 74% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 52% now.
Texas-Rio Grande Valley's win probability against Incarnate Word has swung between 56% and 79% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 58% now.
Texas-Rio Grande Valley's win probability against Incarnate Word has swung between 63% and 83% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 64% now.
Versus settles this one about as close as its model ever does, projecting Texas-Rio Grande Valley to win 27-26 with a 52 percent chance against Incarnate Word's 48. A margin that thin says the two sides are nearly even, even if the ranks in the room suggest otherwise.
The game counts in the Southland Conference standings, and it pits an A defense against an A offense. UTRGV is graded defense-first, 12th in FCS on that side of the ball despite a 45th-ranked offense, while Incarnate Word runs the opposite profile, an A offense ranked 18th in FCS carried by a defense graded only B- and ranked 52nd. Versus also ranks UTRGV 37th in FCS, eight spots ahead of Incarnate Word at 45th, and UTRGV handled this matchup 56-28 the last time the two met.
Incarnate Word arrives at 2-4 and has gone 1-4 over its last five games, a stretch that has swung wildly between a 62-point win and a 53-point loss. UTRGV is 3-3 with a stronger strength of schedule rank at 31 against Incarnate Word's 10, and its defense gives it the edge Versus leans on in the final number.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams
