D2 · South Atlantic ConferenceConference game
Newberry favored over higher-ranked Mars Hill in tight SAC test
Newberry#5351%
Mars Hill#2549%Wk 7 (Oct 11), 2026-27: Newberry 51%, Mars Hill 49% at Mars Hill.
Newberry's win probability against Mars Hill has swung between 38% and 56% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 51% now.
Newberry's win probability against Mars Hill has swung between 44% and 62% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 57% now.
Newberry's win probability against Mars Hill has swung between 51% and 68% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 63% now.
Versus likes Newberry to win this one even though Mars Hill sits 28 spots above the Wolves in the Division II rankings, No. 25 to No. 53. The gap traces mostly to offense. Newberry carries a B offensive grade and a defensive rank of 48, while Mars Hill is built almost entirely around its A- defense, ranked 38th, and has managed only a C offense that sits 95th in the division. Versus projects a one-point margin, 22-21 in Newberry's favor, which reflects how little separates two teams with very different profiles.
Newberry has actually fallen hard this season, sliding from No. 22 to No. 53, while Mars Hill has climbed 40 spots from No. 65 to No. 25 and briefly reached as high as No. 6. Neither team's strength of schedule rank is strong, with Newberry at 106th and Mars Hill at 79th, so both records have been built against lighter competition.
This is a South Atlantic Conference game and it counts in the standings. Mars Hill still leads the all-time series 12-6, but Versus sees the form lines crossing just enough to tip a close one toward Newberry on the road.
Graded within D2, 162 teams
