Fresno State carries a much softer schedule into San Diego State test

The widest gap in this one isn't on the scoreboard projections, it's in the schedules each team has played. Fresno State sits 105th in FBS strength of schedule, while San Diego State has faced the 19th-toughest slate in the division, a difference of 86 spots that makes Fresno State's 4-2 record look better on paper than it has been earned against resistance.

Fresno State still carries the stronger overall profile, graded B- compared to San Diego State's C, with a defensive rank of 62 that holds up against an Aztecs offense ranked 100th. The Bulldogs have also been rolling lately, winning four of their last five games by comfortable margins, and they've posted a winning record for six straight seasons.

San Diego State has gone the other way, dropping four of its last five games by wide margins, with a defensive rank of 116 that has been the main culprit. Versus ranks Fresno State 62nd in FBS and San Diego State 85th, a 23-spot gap that lines up with the 9-point projected margin and a 71 percent win probability for Fresno State. San Diego State did beat Fresno State 23-0 in their last meeting, but this version of the Aztecs is working from a thinner margin for error, even with the toughest schedule of the two behind them. The game counts in the Pac-12 Conference standings for both sides.