Frostburg State favored over higher-ranked Charleston WV

Versus lists Charleston WV 14 spots ahead of Frostburg State in the Division II rankings, 71st to 85th, yet it is Frostburg State that the model favors by 16 points. The gap comes down to what each program has done beyond its overall position. Frostburg State sits 50th in power rank with a 44th ranked offense and a 54th ranked defense, both graded out at B or better, while Charleston WV checks in at 105th in power with a defense ranked 115th. Charleston WV's higher divisional rank owes something to a tougher schedule, 81st against Frostburg State's 91st, but that has not translated into the same week to week performance.

Frostburg State has also been remarkably hard to blow out, with no one beating the Bobcats by more than 10 points all season. Charleston WV counters with its own case, sitting as the No. 2 team in the Mountain East Conference and having put up a season high 42 points in its last game.

This one counts in the Mountain East Conference standings, with Versus projecting a 37-21 final and an 82 percent win probability for Frostburg State at home.