Illinois State projected to win at Southern Illinois despite the tougher schedule gap

Strength of schedule is where these two FCS teams actually separate. Southern Illinois ranks 25th in that category, while Illinois State sits at 57th, a considerable gap that complicates the read on Illinois State's gaudy 24th-place divisional rank against Southern Illinois at 42nd.

Illinois State carries an A+ grade in both offense and defense, with rankings of 5th and 4th in those categories, and the Redbirds reached as high as No. 2 in the Versus FCS rankings earlier this season, their best mark in years. They have also posted a winning record in five straight seasons, and at 4-2 they remain in that company.

Southern Illinois has been far less steady. The Salukis have fallen 23 spots in the Versus FCS rankings this season, sliding from 19th all the way to 42nd, and their season has swung from a 40-point win to a 38-point loss. A loss here would mark their first back-to-back skid since November 2025.

Versus projects Illinois State to win 33-20, giving the Redbirds a 76 percent chance against Southern Illinois's 24 percent. The game counts in the Missouri Valley Football Conference standings, and for Illinois State it is a chance to turn a strong power grade into results against a Southern Illinois team still trying to find consistency.