Chicago's ratings edge dwarfs the records in Midwest Conference test

A 4-1 record for Chicago and a 3-3 mark for Illinois College suggest a competitive conference game, but Versus sees a wide gap underneath those numbers. Chicago sits 105th in D3 with a B- overall grade, while Illinois College checks in at 191st and a D+, an 86-spot divisional difference that the win-loss columns do not capture.

The trend lines reinforce it. Illinois College's power rating has slipped in each of the last five weeks, a stretch during which Chicago has not allowed more than 10 points in three straight games and continues to carry the highest Versus rating anywhere in the Midwest Conference. Chicago's offense, graded B- and ranked 101st in D3, should find room against a defense ranked 164th, even though Illinois College's own defense carries a respectable C- grade.

This one counts in the Midwest Conference standings, and Versus projects Chicago to win at home 35-18, giving the Maroons an 83 percent chance. Illinois College does have a quirk worth watching, having outscored opponents by 20 points per game more on the road than at home this season, but that alone looks unlikely to close a gap this wide.