D3 · Middle Atlantic ConferenceConference game
Delaware Valley projected past Stevenson despite rougher schedule
Delaware Valley#9262%
Stevenson#10438%Wk 7 (Oct 11), 2026-27: Delaware Valley 62%, Stevenson 38% at Stevenson.
Delaware Valley's win probability against Stevenson has swung between 38% and 62% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 62% now.
Delaware Valley's win probability against Stevenson has swung between 44% and 68% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 68% now.
Delaware Valley's win probability against Stevenson has swung between 50% and 73% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 73% now.
Strength of schedule is the real gap here. Delaware Valley carries a strength of schedule rank of 117 in Division III, while Stevenson sits at 205, a sizable difference that the two teams' divisional ranks of 92 and 104 do not fully capture. Both sit in the Middle Atlantic Conference and this one counts in the conference standings.
Delaware Valley's B+ defense and B- offense, ranked 100th, have come against stiffer competition, and both of the Aggies' losses this season have been to teams with winning records, suggesting the three wins reflect a real level of play. Stevenson brings a C+ offense ranked 121st and a B- defense ranked 105th, built on a lighter schedule that has it at 4-1, including a recent road win at Lebanon Valley for the first time since November 2019.
Versus projects Delaware Valley to win 26-20, giving the Aggies a 62 percent chance against Stevenson's 38. Delaware Valley also leads the all-time series 12-2 and has taken 8 of the last 10 meetings, a pattern the numbers this week do not contradict.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
