Illinois Wesleyan's tougher slate backs up its surge past Millikin

Strength of schedule tells more of this story than the gap in the standings. Illinois Wesleyan has played its way to a strength of schedule rank of 16 in D3, while Millikin sits at 42, and that difference matters because the Titans' climb has come against sturdier competition. Illinois Wesleyan has risen from No. 72 to No. 11 in the Versus Division III rankings this season, its best position since 2018, and the 5-1 start backs up the number rather than inflating it.

Millikin brings a shakier picture. The Big Blue have been outscored on average over their last five games, a stretch that has gone 2-3, and the defense carries a C- grade against an Illinois Wesleyan offense graded A-. Millikin does tend to score better at home than on the road this season, which offers some counterweight.

The series has not been close lately. Illinois Wesleyan has won nine of the last ten meetings and five in a row, and Millikin has not beaten the Titans since October 2021. Versus projects Illinois Wesleyan to win 41-17, a 24-point margin, with a 92 percent win probability. This game counts in the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin standings, and little in the numbers suggests Millikin is positioned to change the recent trend.