Howard Payne's schedule gap looms large over Schreiner in ASC test

Strength of schedule separates these two more than their records suggest. Howard Payne carries a schedule rank of 128 in Division III, while Schreiner sits well behind at 188, and that gap helps explain why Versus views the Yellow Jackets as the far more battle tested side heading into this American Southwest Conference matchup. The game counts in the conference standings, and the model expects it to show clearly on the scoreboard.

Howard Payne comes in at 4-1 and graded A- overall, with a B+ offense and B defense that have carried the Yellow Jackets to a 52nd ranked spot in Division III. They have won three of their five games this season by 21 points or more, a pattern of separation that lines up with the 30 point margin Versus projects here.

Schreiner enters at 3-3 and graded C- overall, ranked 163rd in Division III with a D+ offense and D defense. The Mountaineers have been better at home than on the road, averaging 14 more points per game in home games, and they are 3-1 in one-score contests this season. But their power rating has slipped in each of the last three weeks, and Versus gives Howard Payne a 95 percent chance to win on the road.