Abilene Christian projected to edge Central Arkansas, 29-22

Versus projects a tight finish in this United Athletic Conference matchup, with Abilene Christian winning 29-22 and taking the game 66 percent of the time in simulation. A seven point margin in a game between two teams with losing records says the model sees this as closer than the win probability alone suggests.

Abilene Christian carries an A- overall grade and ranks 15th in FCS for power despite a 2-4 record, with an A- defense that sits 12th in the division and a strength of schedule rank of 3, among the toughest in FCS. The Wildcats are one of just 15 FCS teams ranked in the top 25 in both offense and defense, and their most recent win, a 35-7 decision over West Florida, was their most lopsided since October 2025.

Central Arkansas brings an A- grade on both offense and power and a B+ defense, but a 65th place divisional rank and a 2-3 record show those grades have not yet translated into results. The Bears have dropped back-to-back games for the first time since November 2025, a stretch they will need to break against an Abilene Christian defense built to limit scoring.

As a United Athletic Conference game, the result counts in the standings for both sides.