Valparaiso looks to end Drake's four-game run in the series

Drake has owned this series, leading 18-2 since 2007 and winning eight of the last ten meetings, including four straight. Valparaiso has not beaten the Bulldogs since November 2022. None of that history lines up with what Versus sees for Saturday, with the Crusaders favored by 9 points in a game that counts in the Pioneer Football Conference standings.

The model's confidence comes from form as much as power. Valparaiso enters off a result in which it beat Morehead St for the first time in four tries, snapping a skid that had lasted since October 2022, and it carries a C power grade and a defensive rank of 79th in FCS. Drake, despite a season-best No. 48 divisional ranking and the No. 3 spot in the Pioneer standings, has been outscored over its last five games while going 2-3 in that stretch, and its power grade sits at a D.

Drake does carry the stronger profile in scheduling, ranked 39th in strength of schedule against Valparaiso's 123rd, which keeps its overall grade at a B even as its power and defensive marks lag. Versus projects a 33-24 Valparaiso win, giving the Crusaders a 71 percent chance to finally turn the series around at home.