Concord looks to end West Virginia State's grip on a lopsided series

West Virginia State has owned this series, winning nine straight and leading 11-7 overall since 2007, with Concord unable to beat the Yellow Jackets since November 2016. Versus projects that streak is in real jeopardy this week, with Concord installed as a 32-31 favorite in a Mountain East Conference game that counts in the standings for both sides.

The numbers behind that projection tell two different stories. Concord carries a B- offensive grade and a 78th ranked offense in Division II, and enters off a win over Frostburg St that snapped a multi-year skid against that program, a sign the Mountain Lions are finding some rhythm at 3-2. West Virginia State, by contrast, has dropped four straight and seen its power rating slide in each of the last six weeks, leaving the Yellow Jackets at 1-4 with a D power rank and 124th ranked defense.

West Virginia State's lone bright spot this season was an upset of Chowan, a team that sits only 15 spots ahead of the Yellow Jackets in the Division II power rankings, which underlines how unpredictable their results have been. With both defenses graded D+ and neither side pulling away in the model's scoring projection, Versus has this one as a true toss-up, split 50-50, even with history leaning heavily toward the home team.