Olivet Nazarene favored but not comfortable in trip to Madonna

Versus gives Olivet Nazarene a 67 percent chance to win this one, but the final score it projects, 35-28, says this will not be a laugher. The Tigers arrive at 4-0 with the best record in college football and have climbed from No. 38 to No. 7 in the NAIA rankings this season, yet their defensive rank of 30 and strength of schedule rank of 51 suggest the record has come against competition that will not fully prepare them for a Madonna offense that enters this one playing better than its 3-2 mark indicates.

Madonna has outscored each of its last five opponents and climbed to a season-best No. 59 in the Versus NAIA rankings, with a B grade on offense and a B- on defense that both look better than its overall C grade would suggest. The gap in the ranks, 7th for Olivet Nazarene against 59th for Madonna, is wide, but Madonna's power grade of B- sits closer to Olivet Nazarene's B+ than the records imply.

This is a Mid-States Football Association game and it counts in the conference standings for both teams. Olivet Nazarene has won the last three meetings in the series and leads it 3-0 since 2023, with Madonna still searching for its first win over the Tigers since September of that year. The projection suggests that streak is more likely than not to reach four, but not by much.