Illinois Wesleyan projected to edge Carroll WI in tight CCIW test

Versus gives Illinois Wesleyan a 65 percent chance to win this one, projecting a 27-20 final that leaves little separation between two 4-1 teams. The deciding factor in the model is schedule strength: Illinois Wesleyan sits 48th in Division III there, while Carroll WI ranks 111th, a gap that shows up even though both teams carry identical records into the week.

Illinois Wesleyan's 4-1 start is its best through five games since 2018, and the Titans have climbed to a season-best No. 26 in Division III, making them the No. 3 team in the CCIW. Graded A- in power and A- on defense, they bring balance on both sides to go with a 46th-ranked defense.

Carroll WI counters with its own best start since 2014 and an improving trend, having raised its Versus power rating in each of the last three weeks while outscoring its recent opponents on average. The Pioneers carry a B overall power grade and a 76th-ranked defense, but their 98th-ranked offense and softer schedule leave them as the slight underdog here.

The series has gone Illinois Wesleyan's way overall, 6-3 across nine meetings since 2016, though Carroll WI took the most recent matchup 34-14 in November 2025. This week's projection points to a much tighter finish, with the model settling on a seven-point margin in Illinois Wesleyan's favor.