Carnegie Mellon favored at home as schedule strength splits Johns Hopkins, Tartans

Strength of schedule is the real gap between these two Centennial Conference teams, not the divisional rank. Johns Hopkins carries a strength of schedule rank of 3 in Division III, while Carnegie Mellon sits at 87, a split that colors everything else about this matchup.

Johns Hopkins has fallen hard this season, sliding from No. 3 to No. 76 in the Versus Division III rankings, though its toughest-schedule résumé includes an upset of No. 49 Ithaca. The Blue Jays are graded B+ on offense and B on defense, with an offensive rank of 66 and a defensive rank of 85. Carnegie Mellon, by contrast, is graded B+ across power, offense and defense, ranking 62nd on offense and 63rd on defense, and has not finished a season below .500 since 2014.

Carnegie Mellon also has history at home working in its favor, having won 14 of its last 17 there, and its most recent outing was a 52-14 win over McDaniel, its most lopsided margin since November 2025. Versus projects the Tartans to win this one 30-24, a six-point margin, giving Carnegie Mellon a 65 percent chance despite sitting 13 spots behind Johns Hopkins in the Division III rankings. The two split their conference meeting last October, with Johns Hopkins winning 28-27, and this one counts in the Centennial Conference standings as well.