Loras projected to edge Simpson IA in tight American Rivers rematch

Simpson IA still holds the long view of this series, up 11-7 across 18 meetings dating back to 2007, but the more recent chapters favor Loras, which has won three of the last five meetings. Last November broke that pattern, with Simpson IA escaping 28-27, and this week's projection suggests another game decided by a single possession.

Versus has Loras favored 29-28 with a 51 percent win probability, barely ahead of Simpson IA's 49. Both teams arrive at 2-2 and carry matching C+ overall grades. Simpson IA's offense grades out a touch higher at a B, 90th in Division III, but its defense sits 127th and its strength of schedule rank of 149 is the softest mark in the matchup. Loras counters with a steadier spread, graded B- on both sides of the ball, 112th on offense and 119th on defense, with a stronger schedule rank of 133.

Simpson IA brings momentum worth noting, having not finished a season below .500 since 2023 and having just collected its first road win of the year. This game counts in the American Rivers Conference standings, and given how close the last meeting ran, neither side should expect separation.