Austin projected to hold off Centenary LA by a single touchdown

Versus projects a 29-22 finish here, a seven-point margin that gives Austin a 67 percent win probability against Centenary LA's 33. That's a modest edge for a favorite, and it lines up with a team that has looked shaky lately even as it wins on paper.

Both programs sit in the lower half of Division III's 234-team pool, with Austin 198th and Centenary LA 224th. The gap widens a bit on strength of schedule, where Austin ranks 158th to Centenary LA's 165th, but neither offense nor defense separates the two by much, both carry D or D- grades across the board. This is a Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference matchup, so it counts in the standings for both sides.

The more telling detail belongs to Austin, which has been outscored on average over its last four games while going 1-3 in that stretch, including a six-point outing against Hendrix that was its lowest since November 2024. Despite that stretch, Austin is currently the No. 3-ranked team in the SCAC.

The series has favored Austin recently. It leads 3-2 since 2024 and has won the last three meetings, with Centenary LA still searching for its first win over Austin since October 2025.