Cal Lutheran favored over higher-ranked Claremont-Mudd-Scripps

Both teams sit at 2-1, and by the Division III rankings alone Claremont-Mudd-Scripps looks like the steadier side, checking in at No. 95 nationally in D3 against Cal Lutheran's No. 114. The grades tell a different story. Cal Lutheran carries a B power grade with a B+ offense and a B defense, while Claremont-Mudd-Scripps grades out at C+ in power, C on offense and C+ on defense. That gap is why Versus projects Cal Lutheran to win, 31-21, giving the Kingsmen a 73 percent chance in a game that counts in the Southern California Conference standings.

Cal Lutheran arrives having climbed to its season-best D3 ranking this week and sits third in the conference, with an offense ranked 74th nationally that has carried the record so far. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, ranked second in the conference, leans on a program that has not finished a season below .500 since 2017, and comes off snapping a longer drought against a different in-conference opponent.

The series has favored Cal Lutheran overall, 12-9 since 2007, though Claremont-Mudd-Scripps has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings. Versus's model sides with the numbers over that recent trend here, projecting a 10-point Cal Lutheran win on the road.