Dayton projected to leave Drake in a share of last, 33-23

Versus projects a 33-23 Dayton win over Drake, a 10-point margin that gives the Flyers a 72 percent chance to leave with the result their recent form suggests they deserve. This is a Pioneer Football Conference game, so it counts in the league table for both sides.

Dayton comes in at 3-0 and has climbed to a season-best No. 38 in FCS this week, its power rating rising for three straight weeks even though the schedule behind that record ranks just 128th in the division. The offense grades out as a modest C, but a B- defense has been enough to keep the Flyers unbeaten, and Versus notes Dayton has posted a winning record in three straight seasons.

Drake arrives at 1-3 and No. 77 in FCS, with a D power grade and a D- defense that has been part of a stretch in which the Bulldogs have gone 1-3 while getting outscored. Drake did snap a four-game losing streak last week with a 51-32 win over Davidson, which is the one piece of recent form working in its favor here. Dayton also leads the all-time series 10-6, and Drake has not put up more than 14 points against the Flyers since 2019, a trend this projection does not expect to end.