Trine favored over higher-ranked Alma behind an elite offense

Versus tabs Trine as the pick here even though Alma sits nine spots ahead in the Division III rankings, 66th to Trine's 75th, a split that traces straight to how each team wins games. Trine's offense grades out at an A, 28th in Division III, and the Thunder have outscored their last four opponents while going 3-1. That kind of scoring form outweighs a defense that grades only a B+ and ranks 75th.

Alma carries the shinier overall grade at B+ with an A- across power, offense and defense, and a strength of schedule rank of 10 that shows the Scots have been tested. But the underlying number tells a rougher story: Alma has fallen 47 spots in the Versus Division III rankings this season, from 19th to 66th, before snapping a four-game skid with a win over Adrian last time out.

This is a Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association conference game, and Versus projects a tight one, Trine 32, Alma 28, good for a 60 percent win probability for the home team. Alma has won the last four meetings in the series, but Versus sees Trine's offensive form as the difference this time.