Ithaca's A-grade profile outweighs a modest record edge over Hobart

A one-game difference in the standings undersells this one. Ithaca sits at 3-1 and Hobart at 2-2, but Versus has the Bombers graded A in both power and offense and A- on defense, while Hobart checks in at B+ across the board. That shows up in the ranks too, with Ithaca 28th in D3 power against Hobart's 62nd.

The one place Hobart holds ground is schedule strength, ranked 29th in D3 to Ithaca's 163rd, so the Statesmen have been tested more often even while their overall marks lag. Ithaca arrives having won three of its last four games by 21 points or more, a level of separation Hobart hasn't had to face.

Hobart does get this one at home, where the Statesmen have won 15 of their last 17, and Versus still gives them a 31 percent chance to pull it off. But the projection favors Ithaca to win a Liberty League game 31-22, extending a series the Bombers have already won 8 of the last 10 meetings.