MidAmerica Nazarene's record outruns its ratings against Central Methodist

The records say MidAmerica Nazarene, at 3-2, is the clearly better team walking into this Heart of America Athletic Conference game against a 2-3 Central Methodist club. The ratings say otherwise. Versus has the Pioneers at just 51st in NAIA power and the Eagles right behind at 52nd, a gap too thin to explain the standings gap. The difference is schedule strength: Central Methodist ranks 38th in NAIA in strength of schedule while MidAmerica Nazarene sits at 77th, meaning the Pioneers' record has come against softer opposition.

Central Methodist has actually been trending up, climbing to a season-best No. 54 in the NAIA rankings this week, while MidAmerica Nazarene has fallen 19 spots since the season began, from No. 20 down to No. 39. Central Methodist also carries a B- defensive grade against MidAmerica Nazarene's C.

Still, this is a conference matchup, and MidAmerica Nazarene has won 14 of its last 17 games at home. Versus projects a 30-27 finish in the Pioneers' favor, giving them a 56 percent chance to win, with a home-field track record that has repeatedly outweighed the raw numbers in this series.