Westminster MO's soft schedule is the story against Lyon

The biggest gap between these two Division III teams has nothing to do with the scoreboard. Westminster MO's strength of schedule ranks 758th out of 762 teams in Versus's model, the softest slate the Blue Jays have played in years, while Lyon's is a middling 189th in D3. That difference looms over a game the Blue Jays are still favored to win at home.

Lyon comes in at No. 203 in Division III, just ahead of Westminster MO at No. 225, and both carry D grades across the board on offense and defense. The Scots' season highlight so far is a win over Illinois College, a team that sits 24 spots higher than Lyon in the D3 rankings, a result that suggests more fight than the record shows.

Westminster MO's own signature moment was a 41-0 win over Eureka on September 12, its most lopsided victory since 2017, though it came against the kind of opponent that has kept the Blue Jays' schedule rating so low. This is a non-conference game with the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference name on the page but no conference standings on the line. Versus projects Westminster MO to win 28-22, a six-point margin that leaves plenty of room for Lyon's tougher schedule to translate into an upset.