Colgate favored at Villanova despite lower divisional rank

Versus likes Colgate to win at Villanova even though the Red Raiders sit 39th in FCS, eighteen spots behind the Wildcats' 21st. The gap closes once the model looks past the overall number: Colgate carries an A- power grade and a No. 21 power rank, both well ahead of Villanova's B- power grade and No. 61 mark, and that split drives the projection to a 28-19 Colgate win with a 69 percent chance to cover it.

The story on both sides is defense. Colgate is a defense-first team by Versus's own read, an A unit ranked 13th in FCS carrying a offense that grades out closer to average at No. 50. Villanova's numbers are more balanced but less sharp across the board, a C+ offense and a B- defense that sit 66th and 58th respectively. Colgate has also outscored its last four opponents while going 3-1, its best start through four games since 2018, while Villanova has slid from No. 9 to No. 21 in the Versus FCS rankings this season.

This is a Patriot League game, so it counts in the conference race for both. History runs the other way from the projection, with Villanova holding a 5-0 series lead and five straight wins over Colgate, but nothing in that record shows up in Versus's grading of either roster this year.