West Florida outranks SE Missouri State, but the projection barely moves

The records suggest a mismatch that isn't there. West Florida arrives at 2-1 and SE Missouri State sits a game back at 2-2, yet Versus rates the visiting Argonauts 17 spots higher in FCS, No. 24 to No. 41, on the strength of an A offense and an A- overall grade. West Florida has also climbed from No. 45 to No. 24 this season and carries a six-game true road win streak into this non-conference matchup.

SE Missouri State counters with the better defensive rank at 19th in FCS against West Florida's 29th, an A- unit that has carried a team otherwise graded B+ on offense at only No. 41. The Redhawks also own the top Versus rating in the Ohio Valley Conference, even though this game does nothing to the conference standings since it falls outside league play.

Both teams played Southern Illinois this season, with West Florida winning by 3 and SE Missouri State losing by 14, a data point that lines up with the gap in the overall rankings. Still, Versus projects a virtual coin flip, giving SE Missouri State a 52 percent win probability at home and West Florida 48 percent, with the hosts favored by a single point, 26 to 25.