Merrimack's schedule strength projects a home win over New Haven

The clearest gap between these two 1-3 teams isn't on the scoreboard, it's in the schedules they've played. Merrimack ranks 18th in FCS in strength of schedule, while New Haven sits 89th, a difference that helps explain why Versus still favors the Warriors at home despite an identical record. This is a non-conference game for both sides, with New Haven representing the Northeast Conference and Merrimack playing as an FCS Independents team.

Neither team arrives in good form. New Haven has been outscored on average over its last four games and has watched its Versus power rating slip in each of the last three weeks, a stretch that has it losing back-to-back games for the first time since November 2025. Merrimack has also been outscored on average over that same stretch, though its defense still grades out as a C compared to New Haven's D+.

Versus ranks Merrimack 87th in FCS and New Haven 112th, a 25 spot gap, with New Haven still holding an 8-3 edge in their all-time series and wins in 8 of the last 10 meetings. None of that history moves the projection here. Versus favors Merrimack to win at home, 29-19, giving the Warriors a 72 percent chance against New Haven's 28.