St Xavier's brutal schedule keeps it in the game vs Madonna despite the 0-3 mark

Strength of schedule is doing more to explain this NAIA meeting than either team's win column. St Xavier sits at 0-3, but that record comes against the toughest schedule in the division, ranked No. 1 in NAIA for strength of schedule. Madonna, at 2-1, has faced one of the softer slates in the conference, ranked 77th. Versus still lists St Xavier 20 spots ahead of Madonna in the divisional rankings, 48th to 68th, and gives the Cougars the edge in the projection, 31-28, with a 56 percent win probability.

The grades split cleanly. St Xavier grades out at B- overall with a B- offense and a C+ defense, all stronger marks than Madonna's C- overall, C+ offense and C defense. But the trend lines cut against the ranks. St Xavier's power rating has slipped in each of the last four weeks, while Madonna's has climbed in each of the last three, a sign the gap between these two may be closing faster than the numbers on the page suggest.

This is a Mid-States Football Association conference game, so it counts in the standings for both sides. St Xavier has taken the last three meetings, but neither team's recent form points to a comfortable afternoon, and Versus's own projection reflects that with a margin of just three points.