D3 · Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic AssociationConference game
Alma's ratings outweigh an 0-3 start against Adrian
Final
Adrian24-27Alma
Versus called the winner. The projected margin was off by 6 points.
Alma#7969%
Adrian#7331%Wk 4 (Sep 20), 2026-27: Alma 69%, Adrian 31% at Alma.
Alma's win probability against Adrian has swung between 50% and 74% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 57% now.
Alma's win probability against Adrian has swung between 56% and 79% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 63% now.
Alma's win probability against Adrian has swung between 62% and 83% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 69% now.
The records suggest Adrian should be comfortable here. The Bulldogs sit at 2-1 while Alma is winless through three games, but Versus reads the underlying numbers differently and makes the Scots nine-point favorites at home.
Alma carries an A- in power, offense and defense, all built against a schedule ranked 9th in Division III, the toughest kind of 0-3 a team can have. Versus still lists Alma as the No. 3 team in the MIAA. Adrian's B+ grades across the board look similar on paper, but they come with a strength of schedule rank of 80, and the Bulldogs have now lost back-to-back games for the first time since November 2024, a stretch that has quietly undercut a record that still reads 2-1.
With both teams in the MIAA, this one counts in the conference standings. Versus projects a 30-21 finish in Alma's favor, with the Scots' win probability at 69 percent, a result that would treat Alma's rough start as more about schedule than substance.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
