Alma favored over Adrian despite its 0-3 start

The records point one way and the ratings point another. Adrian arrives at 2-1, sitting third in the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association after knocking off a team Versus has 21 spots ahead of it in Division III. Alma is winless at 0-3. Yet Versus still makes the Scots the pick, projecting a 30-21 win with a 69 percent chance to take it.

The explanation is scheduling. Alma's strength of schedule ranks 9th in Division III, while Adrian's sits at 80th, and Alma still grades out A- on both sides of the ball against that tougher slate, compared to Adrian's B+ grades. Adrian's power rank of 66 trails Alma's 46, and the same gap shows up on offense and defense.

That said, Alma's own numbers have been trending the wrong way. The Scots have fallen 60 spots in the Division III rankings this season, from 19th to 79th, and their power rating has slipped in each of the last three weeks. Adrian, meanwhile, has posted a winning record in three straight seasons, a streak this non-conference matchup inside the MIAA won't affect in the standings but could interrupt on the field. Versus's model still leans toward Alma's underlying quality holding up at home.