NAIA · Heart of America Athletic ConferenceConference game
William Penn projected to win by 11 at Central Methodist
William PennAway31
Central MethodistHome20Final
William Penn23-17Central Methodist
Versus called the winner. The projected margin was off by 5 points.
William Penn#1775%Central Methodist#5525%Wk 4 (Sep 20), 2026-27: William Penn 75%, Central Methodist 25% at Central Methodist.
William Penn's win probability against Central Methodist is trending down — from 95% to 75% over the last 6 updates.
William Penn's win probability against Central Methodist is trending down — from 96% to 80% over the last 6 updates.
William Penn's win probability against Central Methodist is trending down — from 97% to 84% over the last 6 updates.
Versus projects a 31-20 result in this Heart of America Athletic Conference matchup, giving William Penn a 75 percent chance to win and an 11-point margin. That gap lines up with where the two programs sit in the NAIA pool.
William Penn carries an A- overall grade and has been ranked in the Versus NAIA top 25 every week this season, currently sitting at No. 15. The Statesmen pair a B power grade with an A- defense, and their defensive rank of 20 is the strongest single number in this game, even though their offensive rank of 35 and strength of schedule rank of 34 suggest the resume has some softer wins mixed in.
Central Methodist enters at 2-2 after climbing to a season-best No. 54 in the Versus NAIA rankings this week. The Eagles grade out as C+ across power, offense and defense, with a strength of schedule rank of 56 that trails William Penn's by a wide margin.
Because both teams play in the Heart of America Athletic Conference, the result counts in the conference standings. With a divisional rank of 17 against Central Methodist's 55, William Penn enters as the clear favorite on paper, though the model still leaves Central Methodist a one in four chance to win outright.
Graded within NAIA, 96 teams
