William Penn projected to beat Central Methodist by 11 on the road

Versus projects William Penn to win 31-20 at Central Methodist, a projection built on 75 percent win probability and an 11-point margin. That gap tracks with where the two sit in the NAIA pool: William Penn is 17th in the division, Central Methodist 55th, and the model's grades separate them clearly, an A- overall mark for the Statesmen against a C+ for the Eagles.

William Penn brings an A- defense and a B offense into the non-conference weekend of Heart of America Athletic Conference play, no, this one counts in the standings since isConferenceGame is true. The Statesmen sit at 3-1 and carry a defensive rank of 20 that should give Central Methodist's 53rd-ranked offense trouble moving the ball consistently.

Central Methodist is not standing still. At 2-2 with a power rank of 52, the Eagles have improved their Versus power rating in each of the last three weeks, evidence of a program trending upward even if the grades, all C+ across offense, defense and power, still trail William Penn's marks. Both teams carry modest strength of schedule ranks, 34th for William Penn and 56th for Central Methodist, so neither profile has been tested against elite competition this season.

The projection favors the road team clearly, but Central Methodist's recent improvement gives it a path to close the gap from where these two programs currently sit in the conference.