Northwestern IA's ratings outrun its record against Hastings

The records alone suggest Hastings is playing better ball, sitting at 2-1 to Northwestern IA's 2-2. The ratings tell a different story. Northwestern IA carries an A- overall grade and sits 20th in offense among NAIA teams, well ahead of Hastings' B grade and 45th-ranked offense, and Versus projects Northwestern IA to win by 9 points, 32-23.

Northwestern IA has not finished a season below .500 since 2016, and this year's group already has a signature win, an upset of No. 6 Morningside that came 15 spots above its own No. 21 ranking. Its defense, graded B+, is the one soft spot, ranking 26th in a group where its offense and overall profile grade out much higher.

Hastings arrives having just won at Waldorf for the first time since September 2024, a sign of progress even if its 47th-ranked strength of schedule and B- power grade put it behind Northwestern IA in most Versus measures. The history between these two Great Plains Athletic Conference programs has run one way for a long time, with Northwestern IA holding a 16-1 series edge and Hastings failing to top 17 points against them since October 2018. This is a conference matchup, and Versus's model sees no reason for that trend to reverse.