William Jewell and McKendree project to a true coin flip

Versus has this Great Lakes Valley Conference game as close as it gets, projecting William Jewell to edge McKendree 29-28 with each team given an even 50 percent chance to win. A one-point margin on paper suggests the deciding factor will be which team's recent form actually holds up on the field.

William Jewell brings a 2-0 record and carries the highest Versus rating in the GLVC, with its power rating climbing in each of the last four weeks. That improvement has come with modest grades across the board, a C overall, C- in power and offense, and a C on defense, and a strength of schedule rank of 162 that raises questions about how much of the surge is opponent-driven.

McKendree sits at 1-2 but grades out better on paper in spots, including a B- offense and a stronger offensive rank of 68 compared to William Jewell's 116. The concern is recent trend rather than season-long profile: the Bearcats have been outscored on average over their last four games, going 1-3 in that stretch, and their defense ranks just 114th.

This one counts in the GLVC standings, and with the numbers split dead even, the version of each team that shows up over the last month figures to settle it.