Reinhardt's brutal schedule makes it a true toss-up against surging Faulkner

History says this one should not be close. Reinhardt has taken 10 of 11 meetings with Faulkner since 2013, including nine straight, and Faulkner has not beaten the Eagles since October 2015. Versus does not see that streak continuing on comfortable terms this time.

Faulkner arrives at 3-1 with real momentum, having outscored its last four opponents by a healthy margin and improved its Versus power rating in each of the last three weeks. That record comes with an asterisk, though, a schedule ranked 82nd in NAIA, well below Reinhardt's. Faulkner is graded B overall, with a C+ offense and a B- defense, and sits 38th in NAIA in Versus's overall ranking.

Reinhardt is 0-4 and has been outscored badly across that stretch, but the schedule behind that record ranks 7th in NAIA, among the toughest in the division, which keeps its power grade at a respectable C+. Reinhardt also carries the No. 2 spot in the Appalachian Athletic Conference standings and has won 14 of its last 17 games at home. This matchup does not count in that conference race, since Faulkner plays as an independent and the game is non-conference.

Versus projects a 30-29 outcome in Reinhardt's favor, giving the home team a 52 percent win probability against Faulkner's 48. A one-point margin puts this among the closest projections on the board this week.