D3 · Ohio Athletic ConferenceConference game
Marietta's defense looms as the difference against Capital
Final
Capital10-32Marietta
Versus called the winner. The projected margin was off by 7 points.
Marietta#7281%
Capital#10219%Wk 3 (Sep 13), 2026-27: Marietta 81%, Capital 19% at Marietta.
Marietta's win probability against Capital has swung between 71% and 89% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 71% now.
Marietta's win probability against Capital has swung between 77% and 92% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 77% now.
Marietta's win probability against Capital has swung between 81% and 94% over the last 6 updates, and sits at 81% now.
The clearest gap in this Ohio Athletic Conference matchup is on defense, where Marietta sits 59th in D3 and Capital sits 121st, a 62-spot difference that lines up with Marietta's B+ grade on that side of the ball against Capital's C+. That gap, more than the records, is why Versus projects Marietta to win at home, 33-18, giving the Pioneers an 81 percent chance to take it.
Capital arrives unbeaten at 2-0 and rides a real result, its 44-19 win over Wilmington was its most lopsided victory since October 2025, but its schedule has been light, ranking 170th in D3 for strength of schedule. Marietta is 1-1 after its first loss to an unranked opponent this season, a defeat to Ohio Northern, yet the Pioneers still carry the higher grades across the board, B+ marks in overall, power, offense and defense, and have not finished a season below .500 since 2021.
This is a conference game, and Marietta's B+ power grade against Capital's C+ reflects a wider separation than the 2-0 and 1-1 records suggest. Capital's offense, graded B-, gives it a path to keep things competitive, but the model sees Marietta's defense as the deciding factor at home.
Graded within D3, 234 teams
