Schedule strength widens the gap between Carroll MT and Dickinson State

The ranks already favor Carroll MT, but the strength of schedule numbers separate these two NAIA Frontier Conference teams even more. Carroll MT sits 23rd in NAIA in strength of schedule, while Dickinson State ranks 58th, a much wider gap than the 37 spots between their overall divisional rankings of 16 and 53. That context matters for a Frontier Conference game that is conference play but won't move either program far in the standings on its own.

Carroll MT brings an A- overall grade built on a defense graded A- and 15th in NAIA, plus a B+ offense that ranks 25th, and the Saints are one of only 21 NAIA teams ranked in the Versus top 25 on both sides of the ball. Dickinson State counters with its own respectable grades, a B- offense and a B defense, and the Blue Hawks were coming off their most lopsided win since November 2024 before this matchup.

Versus projects Carroll MT to win at home, 32-18, giving the Saints a 79 percent win probability against Dickinson State's 21. With the strength of schedule disparity factored in, the model sees Carroll MT's profile as more thoroughly tested heading into Saturday.