Ratings see a bigger gap than records for Valdosta State and UNC-Pembroke

A 3-0 start for Valdosta State and a 2-1 mark for UNC-Pembroke suggest a close non-conference game, but Versus reads this one as lopsided. The Blazers sit 16th in Division II after climbing 12 spots this season, while the Braves rank 62nd, and the letter grades tell the same story: Valdosta State grades out A+ on power and offense against a B and B+ for UNC-Pembroke.

The two sides share a data point worth noting. Both played Fayetteville St this season, and Valdosta State won that game by 29 points while UNC-Pembroke lost its meeting by 3, a gap that lines up with the 46-spot difference in the divisional rankings.

UNC-Pembroke does have an A- defense, 30th in Division II, and a 10-game home winning streak working in its favor as the host. But Valdosta State's offense, 11th in the division and part of a program that has lost just 8 of 43 games over the last four seasons, projects to be the deciding factor. Versus has Valdosta State winning 31-20, a projection that gives the visitors a 72 percent chance to leave with the win.