St Thomas MN projected to hold off Valparaiso's home surge, 31-24

Versus projects a 31-24 win for St Thomas MN, a seven-point margin that gives the Tommies a 65 percent chance to beat Valparaiso on the road. That is a tighter number than the gap between the two programs suggests, with St Thomas MN graded B+ overall against Valparaiso's C-, and it points to a game closer than the teams' standing in the Pioneer would imply.

St Thomas MN comes in at 8-3 and has been rolling lately, going 4-1 over its last five games while outscoring those opponents by a wide average margin, with a B- offense carrying most of the weight. Valparaiso sits 5-5 and owns the Pioneer's 105th-ranked defense, but its own numbers get a boost at home, where the Crusaders average 10 more points per game than they do on the road this season.

The series has been one-sided lately: St Thomas MN leads 5-0 in five meetings since 2021 and has won every one of those games. That history, combined with the Tommies' tendency to pull away in blowouts, five of their eleven games this season have gone by 21 points or more, makes this a game where Valparaiso's home-field boost is the main variable working against a well-worn trend in the Pioneer standings.