South Dakota looks to flip a series Illinois State has owned since 2011

Illinois State has had the better of this matchup for a long stretch, leading the series 9-2 in 11 meetings since 2011 and winning 8 of the last 10 meetings with South Dakota. That history sets up this week's Missouri Valley Football Conference game between two 8-3 teams, with the result counting in the league standings.

Versus has South Dakota ranked 8th in FCS and Illinois State 18th, making this a matchup of two ranked programs within the conference. South Dakota carries an A+ grade across the board, with a power rank of 5 and offensive and defensive ranks both at 4th, though its strength of schedule rank of 20 is the softest mark in its profile. Illinois State is graded A overall with an A+ defense ranked 7th, an offense ranked 15th, and a power rank of 7, built on a season that saw the Redbirds reach No. 2 in the Versus FCS rankings in Week 4, their best mark since 2015. Illinois State is also 3-1 in one-score games this year.

Despite the recent series trend, Versus projects South Dakota to win this one 30-26, giving the Coyotes a 60 percent chance against Illinois State's 40, a projected margin of 4 points in a game that could reshape how these two programs measure up against each other going forward.