Iowa's power rank gap over Illinois points to a sixth straight win

The widest gap between these two sits in the power rankings, where Iowa checks in at No. 15 in FBS against Illinois at No. 38, a 23-spot difference that outpaces anything else in the data. Versus projects Iowa to win 25-19 on the road, with the Hawkeyes favored at 64 percent.

Iowa's case rests on an A+ defense ranked No. 6 in FBS, the best unit either side brings into this one, even though its offense grades out as merely B+ at No. 35. That defensive strength lines up badly for an Illinois team that has seen its scoring fall off sharply since the season's midpoint. Illinois counters with a cleaner profile across the board, grading B+ on both offense and defense and sitting 20th in strength of schedule compared to Iowa's 57th, with its own signature win over a team ranked No. 15 in FBS.

The series has gone Iowa's way for most of the recent past, with the Hawkeyes leading 10-2 in 12 meetings since 2007 and winning 9 of the last 10. Iowa also carries the overall edge in Versus's FBS rankings, sitting at No. 21 against Illinois at No. 30, a 9-spot difference that mirrors the projection's lean toward the Hawkeyes in this Big Ten matchup that counts in the conference standings.