Louisville's ratings gap with Pittsburgh is bigger than the win column shows

A 6-4 record against a 7-3 one suggests a close game, but Versus sees this one as lopsided. Louisville sits 36 spots ahead of Pittsburgh in the FBS rankings, 26th to 62nd, and the grades back that up. The Cardinals carry an A offense and a B+ defense, while Pittsburgh's defense grades out at B+ as well but its offense lags at B-, with a strength of schedule rank of 76 that has padded the record.

Louisville has not lost a game by more than 3 points all season, a sign of a team that holds up when it matters, and its offense ranks 15th in the FBS. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has cooled off since its season-high No. 21 ranking back in Week 6, scoring well short of that early pace in recent weeks.

This one counts in the ACC standings, and Versus projects Louisville to win at home 34-22, giving the Cardinals a 76 percent chance to take it. Pittsburgh leads the series 7-5 in 12 meetings since 2007, but that record carries little weight against the current form on either side.