FCS · Patriot LeagueConference game
Villanova projected to edge Holy Cross in tight Patriot League test
Villanova#4858%
Holy Cross#5642%Wk 11 (Nov 8), 2026-27: Villanova 58%, Holy Cross 42% at Holy Cross.
Villanova's win probability against Holy Cross has swung between 42% and 58% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 58% now.
Villanova's win probability against Holy Cross has swung between 49% and 64% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 64% now.
Villanova's win probability against Holy Cross has swung between 55% and 69% over the last 6 weeks, and sits at 69% now.
Versus gives Villanova a narrow edge here, projecting a 28-25 final and a 58 percent win probability, the kind of three-point margin that reflects two teams much closer than their records suggest. This one counts in the Patriot League standings, and it arrives with Villanova having fallen hard in the Versus FCS rankings this season, sliding from No. 9 all the way to No. 48 even as the Wildcats sit at 6-4 with a B overall grade and a B offense.
Holy Cross enters at 5-5 but playing its best football of the year. The Crusaders have won four of their last five games while pulling away from opponents late, and they've scored at least 27 points in each of their last three outings despite carrying C grades across power, offense and defense. That recent surge is a big reason Versus sees this as competitive despite Holy Cross ranking 76th in offense and 75th in defense within the FCS, well behind Villanova's 49th and 59th marks.
Versus ranks Villanova No. 48 in FCS, eight spots ahead of Holy Cross at No. 56, and Villanova carries a much tougher strength of schedule rank of 98 compared to Holy Cross's 64. The two haven't met since Villanova's 21-16 win in December 2021, and little about the numbers here suggests this rematch will be any less tight.
Graded within FCS, 128 teams
