New Jersey favored over Kean despite trailing in most ranks

Versus likes the team sitting behind Kean in nearly every category here. New Jersey comes in 143rd in D3 to Kean's 138th, with a lower power rank and a far lower offensive rank, 136th against Kean's 98th. Yet the Lions get the nod at home, projected to win 23-22 in a game the model calls a true coin flip. The edge comes down to defense, where New Jersey ranks 95th compared to Kean's 104th, and to recent history in this series.

That recent history has swung hard in New Jersey's favor. Kean leads the series 10-8 in 18 meetings since 2007, but New Jersey has won three straight and Kean has not beaten the Lions since November 2022, failing to score more than 7 points in that stretch.

New Jersey has been anything but steady this season, with a 34-point win and a 42-point loss among its results, and the Lions were shut out for the first time since September 2021 in their last outing. That volatility makes the even projection believable. Kean's better overall power and offensive grades, both B-, suggest the Cougars have the tools to end the drought, but Versus still gives New Jersey a 50 percent chance to make it four straight in the NJAC series.