Texas-Permian Basin projected to hold off TAMU-Kingsville, 34-26

Versus projects Texas-Permian Basin to beat TAMU-Kingsville 34-26, an eight-point margin that gives the Falcons a 67 percent win probability at home. That's a sizable number for a team that has fallen 38 spots in the Division II rankings this season, from No. 17 down to No. 55, and has been scoring well off its early-season pace since the midpoint of the year.

Texas-Permian Basin still grades out well on paper, a B overall with a B+ in both power and offense and a B defense, and its offensive and defensive ranks of 51st and 60th in D2 are solid enough to back the projection. The concern is direction rather than level, and a strength of schedule rank of 74 hasn't helped the slide.

TAMU-Kingsville brings a B+ offense of its own, built on a season that includes three wins by 21 points or more, the latest a 63-17 result over Sul Ross St that was its most lopsided since last November. The Javelinas also own this season's biggest surprise between the two, an upset of Western Oregon, a team 15 spots better than them in the D2 rankings, a game in which they won by 7 while Texas-Permian Basin lost by 19 against the same opponent. TAMU-Kingsville leads the head-to-head series 6-4 in 10 meetings since 2016, and this one counts in the Lone Star Conference standings for both sides.